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Is GW a healthy business? 75% chance of Bankruptcy in next 2 years


Raak

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I know we've discussed this before but a friend shot me a msg yesterday that made me want to check on GWs fiscal health.

 

-->a broad look at GMWKF

 

--> 75% probability of bankruptcy in the next 2 years. - I'm not liking those odds. To put that in perspective it's the same percentage chance you have of hitting an enemy who's Weapon Skill is half what yours is.  ....yeah.

 

 

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I would doubt those numbers, yes they have taken a hit in sales in the first quarter but that trend is not going to be linear.  I read an article, cant find it right now but i think it was the CFO saying that financially they did take a hit but they are doing just fine.  Looking at the financial report North America is the only place they closed more stores than they opened and they are just starting to break into Asia which has an enormous demographic for this kind of stuff.  Also Ironically UK seems to be the only place they had a significant change which may be a large factor in the stock price and speculation, I'm no expert but compared to many other reports I've seen GW seems to be down a bit but totally fine.

 

Financial report

http://investor.games-workshop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Games-Workshop-Group-14-combined-FINAL-cover-version.pdf  

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All of the negative reports I saw related to a fall in profits, which obviously isn't good, but they aren't operating a loss, either.

 

I also read that a significant reason for the profit loss is related to licensing and royalties, not their core products. That falls pretty well in line with the closure of THQ. I don't think GW is in any sort of trouble.

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TSR's bankruptcy ended up being a good thing for Dungeons & Dragons in the long run, I think.  If Games Workshop goes under, then the rights will get bought by someone.  Hopefully someone who can do something to revitalize the game.  Or, you know, maybe we'll see a lot of third party models catch on while the rights are in limbo.

 

Any way it works out, I think it'll be good for wargaming if GW crashes and burns.

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If Games Workshop goes under, then the rights will get bought by someone.  Hopefully someone who can do something to revitalize the game.  Or, you know, maybe we'll see a lot of third party models catch on while the rights are in limbo.

 

Any way it works out, I think it'll be good for wargaming if GW crashes and burns.

 

You bring excellent points to the table sir!

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Hello there,

 

Didn't the latest report from GW to their investors highlight all the extra money they dumped into streamlining their business structure?  If I recall correctly (and memory is inherently flawed, mind you) there was a large input of capital this year into re-adjusting their business model which impacted "the numbers" or "the line."

 

Worth looking into. 

 

Stay safe,

 

don

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